Happy New Year! We certainly said those words last January 1, but this January 1, we hope to make good on them. It’s our (Josh & Kinsey’s) sincerest hope that this year turns out better and happier than the last one.
2020 brought countless challenges that you most certainly don’t need us to rehash. A lot was lost. A lot was permanently changed. But also...a lot was learned. That’s why we’re in your inbox right now, taking an eye to the future.
[That was both of us. Now this is Josh.]
In 2018, I sent out my first batch of predictions to a few friends. So many humored me, hit reply all, and followed up with their own thoughts. That kicked off Thinking Is Cool, an experimental Monday email I’d send with rather vague questions like “what are you scared of?” or “what are you reliant upon?” or “what will education look like in 20 years?”
I was flying around the country each week in my first job as a consultant, and the responses saved me from an otherwise lonely lifestyle.
Clearly, I suck at predicting the future. But a lot of what I’ve predicted in the past is still interesting, regardless of how right or wrong I’ve been. Here’s something I wrote back on January 1, 2019:
Even without regulation, FB is under much more scrutiny (obviously). So now would be a great time for a new social media app to come out and disrupt them. New biz model, can be copied but can’t be bought (at least by FB). Cue Portal + Oculus + FB phone failures bringing up questions as to whether Zuck can do literally anything else beside sell low quality/high quantity ads
I had heard of musical.ly—Blake’s brother was weirdly famous for his lip syncs—but I had no idea how it worked. If only I asked a few more questions.
Suffice to say, there’s always a nugget in these that ages in an interesting way or teaches me something valuable. Plus it’s a really great exercise for self expression. I didn’t get around to 2020 predictions because I was caught up with a girl and my job at Morning Brew. But today, I’m caught up with neither. So now, while I’m looking ahead to my next chapter, I’m putting myself back in the predictions hot seat baaaabby 🤘.
[And now it’s Kinsey.]
And Josh has tagged me in to join the fun. I’ve listened to him wax poetic about believing in TikTok before it was cool for the last year...figured I might have something to add myself.
For the last 2.5 years, I’ve been working day in and day out with Josh (in an official capacity as Morning Brew’s audio team and in an unofficial capacity as his email and Tweet editor). In both of those roles, Josh has in return pushed me to get outside of my journalism major comfort zone to honor the gut instincts I feel about the world around me. Having opinions is new for me, but I think I’m getting my sea legs. Thus, my involvement here with you and all of the thought-provoking friends Josh has introduced me to over the last couple years.
Which brings us to today. In a year that—what’s the scientific term for it? Absolutely blew?—the two of us have gotten to speak and become close with the most incredibly bright people young and curious minds like us might endeavor to know. It’s taught us a lot about being bold, taking chances, and questioning everything.
That’s why we’re sending this email—yes, we’re making some predictions about 2021. We hope we’re right. But more than that, we hope you (our most trusted, most intellectual, most enterprising friends) might do the same heading into the new year. What are you questioning? What are you excited about? What comes next? And of course—how can 2021 answer all of these questions?
Thinking really is cool, and we all get better at it when we do it together. So reply to this email! If we get some really great thought-starters, we’ll share with the whole group.
Now, without further ado, here are our predictions for 2021. I’ll start.
Prediction 1: The advent of the creator economy over the last ~18 months will become a case study for everyone in every industry in 2021.
Of course, I’m coming at this one as a creator myself, but I think there’s a lot to be learned + applied from the tidal wave of recent Substack exoduses. First and foremost, creators have proven there’s no need to over-scale when you can build a small but loyal audience (bonus points if that audience is willing to pay $$). As a capitalistic experiment that’s been altogether obsessed with the question “but can it scale” for generations, that could present a meaningful shift in the way we judge viability in the business world.
What’s more, if we in media (Media! No money! No stability!) can make a living off independence, so too could a consultant or even someone who doesn’t know how many tennis balls can fit in a Boeing 737. In 2021, loyal audience and strong community > extensive corporate network.
That’s in theory. In practice, this new ideal of independence opens up an enormous white space for the next Substacks, Upworks, and Shopifys of the world. Every sector in our economy—not just media and retail—will need a platform to foster and support its independent workers. How can my hairstylist (Halie if ur reading this ILY) book her own appointments outside of her work at the salon? Sure, independence will come at a small monthly fee, but I imagine it’s far more stomachable than the giant share she’s forking over to her East Village home salon every time I go in for a trim.
I smell an opportunity.
Prediction 2: Stick with me, this one smells more like realism than opportunity. Derision is a poison that’s becoming more and more potent in 2021, and we desperately need an antidote.
After spending quite a bit of time at home (in rural North Florida) and on Twitter this year, it’s become clear to me that far too many people rely on the internet to tell them how to think, feel, act, argue, love, etc. This isn’t new, but it is getting worse.
Because in 2020, we allowed ourselves to create bunkers, both mentally and physically, that kept the unknown out. It was a necessary effort to preserve public health. But it wrought immense damage to the small semblance of togetherness we still had left. Think about the unfounded politicization of things like the Black Lives Matter movement. Think about the 2020 election. Think about Clubhouse. We have endless places to make noise and almost no intention of listening.
That means a couple things heading into 2021: 1) The divisions in this country are getting deeper by the second, and they will continue to do so in 2021. Neither a vaccine nor a new administration can or will fix that. 2) We need to be conscious of the connections we’ve made online—are they pushing us to think differently, or are they creating echo chambers for our strongly, stubbornly held ideals? Both can be true.
Prediction 3: Healthcare is the new B2B SaaS.
I’m 26 and I’ve never once found healthcare sexy. But know what is sexy? Entrepreneurial problem solving. That’s why I’m expecting a significant influx of healthcare and telehealth startups as we move into and beyond 2021.
By and large, entrepreneurs do what they do (or at least tell you they do what they do) to solve a problem that has deeply affected them or someone they know. Covid-19 has killed almost 350,000 Americans, infected almost 20 million, and impacted us all. It has exposed loads of young people to a healthcare system they rarely paid much attention to before the pandemic hit. Before 2020, I went to the doctor maybe once a year for my annual check-up. Since September, I’ve gone to CityMD nine times, and each time I’ve seen someone struggling.
Interfacing with that healthcare system and all its flaws at a scale we never fathomed in the before times will push a new generation of entrepreneurs to solve healthcare problems. And that’s good for more than just the VCs who back them.
Quick hits because why not:
SPACs will face a long overdue reckoning from sleepy overseers who have failed to execute on their most critical regulatory responsibilities.
2021 will be Dua Lipa’s year for the taking.
Corporate social responsibility will become consumer social responsibility. Everyday folks (and not just those who Tweet about it) will use their wallets to support anti-racist, environmentally conscious, gender equitable, and transparent businesses.
The only people who care about the “Miami > Silicon Valley” discourse are people in Miami and Silicon Valley.
Time for a thread: No matter how full of shit they are, the brigade of “I built a community of 47K on Twitter and you can too” will still be at it. Their reckoning won’t come ‘til 2022.
My final prediction: Josh might be leaving Morning Brew, but we’re not close to finished creating together.
👀
[Those are Josh’s eyes, now more of his words.]
It’s been Dua’s world and we’ve been living in it. You know that. Come see Miami and you’ll care about the discourse. I hear you on the rest.
In my 2019 email, I had a wishlist.
Those were fun but inconsequential. Now I realize how little I know about the world, that Barstool can admirably raise $13 million for small businesses and still suck, how capitalism is way off the rails, and how badly I want answers to bigger questions:
Why did I let Kinsey go first? Why did I commit to this fool’s errand once again?
How do we build on the protests that followed the murders of George Floyd and Breonna Taylor and so many more?
Will we honor frontline workers with more than “thoughts and prayers?”
How will we grapple with increasing polarization?
How are we going to respond to our greatest challenges like ordering food from our couch, finding another cool candle, giving teachers the right tools to educate at scale, securing basic healthcare for all, and saving our collective mental health?
Why are dating apps so boring?
How can our brightest minds work for our most corrupt institutions?
Questions aren’t predictions, so here’s what I got. Apologies to my future self.
Prediction 1: Cambrian Explosion of Interaction
Goddam I’ve been craving a good use for that term. We haven’t seen our friends and, unless you’re part of the small cohort making Internet FriendsTM, you haven’t made new ones in a year. Two graduating classes will emerge from their parent’s homes for the first time and meet each other IRL for the first time. Many have moved cities, SF is no longer the center of tech, etc. We are tired of Zoom parties. We’ve had zero concerts, other than that dumbass Chainsmokers one in the Hamptons.
I predict the most businesses started, most jobs moved, most first dates.
Prediction 2: TikTok ownership remains unchanged, improves big tech.
I already flexed how I expected a new social app. Aside from being right, I simply love TikTok. But I’m scared of the Chinese ownership. What if—instead of a forced sale to an ill-equipped buyer like Walmart or Oracle—TikTok played by the rules?
In September, the best app ever showed its algorithm to reporters. Has any American company done that? Not to my knowledge. If it focuses on transparency, keeps U.S. data in the U.S., and supports creators, I don’t see what’s fundamentally wrong with a strong tech company that wasn’t founded in the U.S. if we protect ourselves accordingly. More countries (beyond China) need tech darlings to rally around to create a more diverse internet. The increased competition will force our companies and governments to behave better and create better.
Prediction 3: Third places thrive.
I was home in Miami from March–August. I texted my friend Mallory that NYC was dead and my time there was behind me. Then I returned in August and fell back in love with NYC. The pedestrianized streets, outdoor dining, and lack of tourists changed the city for the better. But it was impossible to avoid the shuttered stores and restaurants. We were enjoying ourselves on the ashes of our neighbors.
There are so many vacancies. What do we do with the empty space?
Ecommerce is up. Food delivery is up. We evidently like working out at home and not feeling insecure about how we look at Equinox. Now is finally the time that the Soho House copycats can thrive. Instead of sitting in a crowded Starbucks all day hogging wifi, you’ll be more than happy to pay a monthly fee for access to the latest Nik Sharma-backed drink and a newly renovated workspace somewhere other than your bedroom. It’s an easy business to spin up and gets better over time.
Call it coworking, a 3rd place, a showroom—I don’t really care anymore. Overvalued tech companies will sponsor locations to attract attention, employees, and developer communities. My hope is that these places are differentiated based on interest (one for techies, one for hipsters, another for makeup enthusiasts) and not based on income. I know, people have tried this. But the timing feels right and a kid can dream.
Quick hits because Kinsey did it:
Optimism: The country marches on May 25th to remember George Floyd.
Pessimism: A Green New Deal will not be passed in 2021.
Mild: Bitcoin’s correlation to gold continues to strengthen.
Spicy: Clubhouse flops, Twitter Spaces thrives.
Criminal: Nobody is held accountable for being an accomplice to Trump for 4 years. I will still hate Mitch McConnell.
Criminal again: Trump debuts the first media company launched from prison.
Obvious: 5G and bitcoin still mean zilch to a random person walking down the street.
Late stage capitalism: Amazon buys AMC and starts showing any movie from the Prime catalog. Prime members get 15% off concessions. You can buy a Kindle on your way out. The whole thing is written off as marketing.
[Back to Kinsey for the sign-off.]
Thanks, Josh. I read mild and spicy and now I can’t stop thinking about Josh’s quick hits as wing flavors. May I please have a basket of 10 bone-in criminal again wings please?
Anyway, thank you for joining our fun this New Year. Here’s to thinking big, being bold, and 2021. We’ve got high hopes.
And don’t forget, hit reply and let us know what you are thinking.
—Josh & Kinsey
I can’t predict what will happen in 2021 but I can predict you will write a book in 2031😆